The latest Mac developer survey sheds light on some of the big questions Apple developers are grappling with as we head toward 2025.
Mac developers have a lot to think about as we close in on 2025, the eighth Mac developer survey from Setapp suggests. Should they sell software outside of the App Store? Is it time to diversify to other platforms? When will it be time to build software for visionOS? And what about artificial intelligence (AI)?
Should they sell software outside of the App Store?
Apple is being forced to open up to competition to the App Store, including support for third-party app portals. As these stores appear, it seems inevitable that some developers might consider selling software at those new outlets, including Setapp’s own mobile app store. The data suggests that as many as a third of developers are ready to use third-party stores for iOS apps.
It’s a little different for Mac applications — just 20% of those are sold exclusively via the Mac App Store, with 37% sold outside of that structure and 44% sold through both outlets. The implication here is that iOS app sales might end up in a similar stance, with the vast majority of apps made available via the App Store, rather than outside of it.
The most popular channel for Mac app sales outside of Apple’s store is, of course, via the developer’s own website — though when it comes to making those sales, the challenges remain much the same as before: app discovery, marking, and user acquisition. I’ll be interested to see how third-party app stores rise to the challenge of helping developers with those challenges in future.
There’s an interesting side insight here.
Despite years of complaining about Apple’s 30% fee on apps sold through its own store (really, it is around 15% for the vast majority), it strongly appears developers believe it is worth sharing revenue with app retail services. That, once again, means the only real question behind of the App Store liberation remains the same: How much is fair to charge? That amount differs, but people seem pretty certain that revenue sharing is good for business, and a good chunk of them plan to stick with the App Store.
Is it time to diversify to other platforms?
If Mac developers are a barometer, then it looks as if the majority of Apple’s developers are willing to build cross-platform solutions to bring in new business, though most prefer to remain in Apple’s ecosystem. Three-quarters (75%) of developers build for other operating systems, mainly for iOS (59%), iPad OS (37%), and Windows (23%). Just 11% build for Android — slightly lower than those building apps for Apple Watch.
The trend is that diversification is taking place mostly within Apple’s own ecosystem, with some Windows development. What isn’t happening fast so far is visionOS, which hasn’t yet become a large enough platform for mass market app developers. It’s a professional tool.
When will it be time to build software for visionOS?
Twenty percent of Mac developers plan to develop for visionOS in 2024 or are already in the process. Low market share and high device price remains a concern and is possibly why almost half (45%) of developers haven’t decided whether to build for the platform yet. Thirty-five percent of developers say they will not build for the platform this year, though 8% are building visionOS apps already.
What’s interesting is that while it confirms relatively low interest in developing apps for Apple’s newest hardware at this time, it shows interest sufficiently high that almost one in 10 Mac developers are already building for the platform.
This bodes very well as Apple improves the hardware and reduces cost, as it means there will already be a decent number of apps available by the time it inches toward being more mass market. While there are many developers who won’t use their resources to build right now, things can and will change as the situation evolves.
What about AI?
Apple’s spatial reality party was to some extent dented by the near-simultaneous revolution of generative AI. If Apple had expected visionOS to grab the oxygen from the room, it only had limited success. Sure, the rest of the industry went into stasis as it awaited news of VisionPro, but AI grabbed headlines everywhere and developers are far from blind to that. Nor, as Apple Intelligence proves, was Apple.
This is probably why more than 41% of Mac app developers are about to begin using AI models in their apps, with another 19% thinking about it. What they are using AI for is interesting. As you’d expect, personalization and automation are big trends, but real-time translation, automated IoT deployments, and productivity tools in various stripes seem to be shades of what’s coming as apps get updated in the coming months. AI/ML development is by far the trend developers think will have the biggest impact on their apps in the year to come, with personalization and privacy rules also in the picture.
There’s a lot more that should be of interest in the Setapp survey this year. But what seems to be crystal clear is that the intelligence in devices will be harnessed in rapidly more sophisticated ways in the months and years ahead — at what point will AI predict your needs to the extent that App Stores will be redundant? And as apps continue to evolve into becoming cloud-based services, will operating systems mean as much anymore?
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